Blog/Race Preview

Tuesday 30th July 2013.
Please note Puntprofessionally.com is currently undergoing some website construction changes & enhancements. We will resume in the Near Future. Please  feel free to still  contact us and we will answer all enquiries from the 1st August 2013.
 I hope to have an exciting new product to report on that I have been trailing and fresh in-depth training lessons for your perusal.As I wrote a while back now is a great time of year to get your 2013/2014 betting plan in place prior to the new season on August 1st. What are  your top Six  Key Parameters  or Core values that you believe will determine the outcome of a horse winning todays race? Times , Barrier , Acceleration , Weights, Trainers, Jockeys ???
Then…………………
  • How you are going to determine your selections?
  • What Races are you going to target?
  • What reliable source will I get the form from?
  • How much of your bankroll you will wager on each selection and why?
  • Who you are going to place your bets?
  • What is the minimum price I will accept on any given bet?
  • Are you going to bet Win only or Win & Exotics?
  • What do I want to achieve at the end of 12 months $5000, $40000 ????
If you take the time to honestly answer these then you are well on your way to becoming a more successful punter in 2013/14. And remember always keep your emotions in tact!

Good Luck Greg.
 
Monday 24th June
Well no joy for me yesterday. As predicted Steps In Time & Arctic Flight both went flat chat until they capitulated at the 150m mark as  nothing was winning up front on the wet track at Eagle Farm. I only had one winner in 5 bets @$3.50 so paying out this week. The only shining light is that I am always weary of the end of carnivals as horses can often be one run over the top. Peron was a classic example of that Saturday. I reduced my bet sizes Saturday to match my confidence level and it paid dividends. I will repeat this strategy many times to readers that the best staking plan is one that has flexibility in it.
I noted that the Kennewell family from Adelaide again Won another feature race with Rialya winning the Grp3 Tattersall’s Cup @ $21.00. As I alluded to on the 9th June the SA form is holding up extremely well this year with Galah and Conservatorium also flying the flag in some Group Races recently. Still it didn’t help my pocket as I only had Rialya rated 5th. It would appear they are staying on for a tilt at the Queensland Cup in a fortnight.
I will be on Holidays and overseas  from Tuesday 25th June until Wednesday 31st July to recharge the batteries ready for the new racing season. This is a idea time of year for everyone to get their racing strategies in place ready to launch. See you then… Greg.
red tracer Red Tracer
Saturday 22nd June
We have awoken to a heavy track at Eagle Farm this morning. The track manager is hopeful of it getting back to a Slow7. I had Funtantes rated on top in Race 8 on a slow track but the big danger will now be River Lad if it remains Heavy. The fields have held up nicely in Melbourne and with some real long odds in my top 4 selections some multiples or a quadrella is certainly worth a go……………… Good Luck Greg.
 
 
2:22 Flemington Race 5 1410m Dead
 
No Horse              Wodds 
 9 By The Way           3.5
14 Triple Tee           4.3
13 Del Palio            8.8
 8 Another Prelate     11.0
 
 2:57 Flemington Race 6 1610m Dead
 
No Horse              Wodds 
 1 Hawks Bay            3.3
 8 Clangas Glory        4.4
12 Lord Durante         5.3
 3 Constant Force      19.7
 
 3:32 Flemington Race 7 1100m Dead
 
No Horse              Wodds 
 9 Belfast Boy          4.5
 7 Serene Star          8.2
 8 Planet Voyage        9.8
 3 Shellscrape         10.1
 
 4:07 Flemington Race 8 1410m Dead
 
No Horse              Wodds 
 3 Endless Shadow       2.2
11 Euphorbia            2.7
16 Girls On Film       81.2
 6 Sweet Ella          92.9
Friday 21st June
Eagle Farm Race 7      1400m  F&M Gp1 WFA $500000 Sky Racing Tattersall’s Tiara
This weekend sees the running of the last Grp1 race for 2012/2013season in Australia. The weight-for-age conditions of the Tattersall’s Tiara usually gives the advantage to the best performed filly or mare in the race. From the 1400m start there is a long straight run down the back of the course to the first turn, so barriers are of little importance. The Group one status for breeding purposes alone is keenly sought after by all trainers. Similar to when we rated the 2011 winner Yosei on top at odds of 15/1 this year I have another longer price horse on top.
 Steps in Time $10.00 had a  hard run from wide gate last start and was entitled to feel the pinch with huge weight 2 len 7th (59.5) Red Tracer 1400m E Farm Dane Ripper dead trk June 8. She will  give plenty of cheek if she gets her own way in front but the last 100m might be a concern with some quality filly and mares peeling of her back. Steps in time has won 3 times third up from a spell from four attempts and four times at the 1400m.Red Tracer$5.00 was a close 4th in this race last year off similar lead-up win in Dane Ripper. Arctic Flight $21.00 finished only 0.4 lengths behind Red Tracer last start. Streama$4.20  laid in a bit in the Stradebroke Hcp but has not finished further back than 2.9 lengths at her last four  Group 1 attempts.A tough race as always as a host of chances we  have not even touched on the chances of horses like Peron or She’s Clean who are in superb form.
 Summary: Steps In Time on top, Red Tracer, Streama & Arctic Flight  in the multiples .
Question – how do bet these selections at the current prices in this race to make a nice profit.? Well there is not much value in Red Tracer or Streama so the approach I will be taking is a $100 win bet @ 9/1 Steps In Time  and $100 Exacta 2 x 4 combo with Steps in Time & Artic Flight as the bankers…..
Outside of the Black Type races in Qld the fields look strong in Melbourne and the Quadrella could pay a nice return. Good Luck.

Pear Tart

2012 Tatts Tiara Winner Pear Tart.
 Thursday 20th June
Rockhampton R7   $75000  XXXX Newmarket Hcp 1300m
To be run this Thursday. I currently have two horses rated on top , Ten to Zero ($4.60) & Our Boy Malachi($1.75) 
No great value in the  early  markets. When they last met they started in barriers  8 & 9 respectively and there is no change to the class or weight between them. Ten To Zeros last run was a solid effort when resumed and led until late  in lg nk 2nd (54.0) Our Boy Malachi 1200m Rockhampton Open Hcp June 6. He was previously with Joseph Pride and won at 1250m Canterbury (Bm70) Feb 22 so may be able to turn the tables on the favourite. Ten Seconds is dropping 7.5kg. so has  some claims at $26.00
If Ten to Zero could get out to odds over $5.50 I would consider just having a straight out bet on him other wise a watch race.
Callaghan Park Racecourse Rockhampton Racecourse has a circumference of 1,900m and a home straight being 580m long.The course has 2 chutes, one at the 1600m and the other at the 1000m mark.. Field sizes vary, depending on the rail placements, from 10 to 16.Barrier advantages are of least importance at 1300m and 1600m starts.  Jockey Adrian Coome is certainly the highest rated jockey at Rockhampton. In his last 210 starts he has won 51 times or a 24% strike rate at a surprising odds of $4.00 average.
Sunday 16th June

Anagold

Anagold wins Ipswich Cup
Well I have always said the tipping game is a hard one. I had two races at Ipswich on Saturday that the ratings had thrown up complete roughies on top. One was Whatever whenever @ $61 fixed odds in early markets. I highlighted all the good points on this selection and had a good crack at it as a win bet and a fixed price quinella. Around the turn in the Gai Waterhouse Classic all 4 selections were running 1st , 2nd,3rd and 4th. Unfortunately Whateverwhenever did not show any dash and I walked away empty handed.
The other race that I didn’t highlight was the Ipswich Cup. Why? Well the top rated selections was Anagold @$81.00 fixed odds IAS. I backed it straight out and had a fixed price quinella with the top 4 selections. One combination alone was worth 1600/1 and I had 20 units on it. It was worth $32000 dollars. Realistically I felt the bet had no chance in hell. The only positive was that Anagold had won 3 times at the Ipswich Cup distance and on Dec 12th over 2200m at Doomben ran great time beaten 0.4lenght after being block for a run.
If I tip it at $81.00 and it loses you look like an idiot, it wins you look like a hero. Anyhow the win was a nice boost to the kitty as my strike rate is slightly down in 2013 so the occasional longshot keeps the wheel turning. Well done to those few that I spoke to it about.  A friend back in Adelaide has been betting around $200 a bet but he just had $10 EW on it and a crack at the multiples. He is kicking himself. It show the importance again of not swaying from your staking plan.
Anagold also started just $41 SP on course. I secured $81 Thursday morning- that’s double or $40more. For just $100bet that’s an extra $4000 and not to be sneezed at.
 3:05 15Jun13 Ipswich Race 7 2150m   LR HCP $200000

No     Form Horse              BP Wodds Wnet 
16 132X7088 Anagold             3   2.7 75.5
15 38112550 Dazzle Us           8   3.8 73.0
14 37225X71 Planetarium         1  19.6 62.1
 5 43X84244 Topping            11  23.8 60.8
 4 7959X507 Rialya             10  28.1 59.7
 My main PC needs to go to the IT repairer tomorrow for a urgent check-up as I believe a virus is in the system so I might not get a chance to post anything until nearly Friday. We better  have the computer back by then as this Saturday is the last Group One of the year the Tatts Tiara ( old Winter Stakes) Another winner like Yosei in 2011 would be great.
Thursday 13th June

Ipswich Cup

The focus this weekend is well and truly on the 3 Listed Races at Ipswich, being the $100000 Gai Waterhouse Classic,$200000 Ipswich Cup and $175000 Eye Liner Stakes.
The track was deluged with 23mm of rain over night and is currently a Heavy 10. With two days of 24C sunshine it may get back to slow at best.
In the $100000 Gai Waterhouse Classic I have two-horse rated equal being Whateverwhenever $61.00 IAS   & Bound To Blush $6.00 IAS or Bet365. Whateverwhenever is not as rough as first appears. He is undefeated in two starts at this track & likes wet tracks and has blinkers on. Last year on Oct20th at Caulfield over 1400m on a dead track he won the Grp3 $150000 Moonga Stakes so if he could reproduce that here he is well over the odds.Not to mention he is 2/2 at Ipswich!
Ipswich Cup day is renowned for upsets. You must keep in mind that a lot of horses are having a final to wind down before going to the spelling paddock after  long campaigns. Their races they were set for have probably been run & won already. If you can pay extra attention to the fresher horses that are just a few runs back from a spell and stepping up to their pet distance or track condition Saturday you may just reap some big rewards. Ipswich Straight is only 300meters long and the barriers from the 1350 chute have little influence.
Bound To Blush has been a thorn in my side the last two starts. Two starts back a decent odds she led the whole way and looked home until the last stride after being used up from an outside barrier. Last start she draws inside, shorter odds accordingly , back in distance , everything made to suit , leads and knocks up? Omly start on dead track……….did that beat her  or the pace the race was run?????????? Saturday Bound to Blush might just get a soft lead in front and with the tight turns at Ipswich he may just boot clear and be hard to run down.
Peron ..wonderful strike rate , up in class but 2/2 at distance and 5 wins from 6 starts. Then there’s Classics which I  re rated on times, second up specialist winning 2/4 and won twice over 1400 m. Great race.
Early Scratching’s as at 4.45pm 14/6/13 Heavy *8
Race 1:
10   Our Editor  (SA 12/6 1625)
Race 2:
1   Pellegrini (NZ) (SC 14/6 1111)
5   Sons of God  (SA 13/6 2022)
7   Jack’s Back  (SC 14/6 0926)
Race 3:
8   Maury  (SA 14/6 0855)
10   State of Wealth  (SC 14/6 1448)
Race 4:
4   Sovereign Spider  (SC 12/6 1041)
Race 5:
1   Keep It Moist  (SC 14/6 1458)
9   Triple Six  (SA 12/6 1152)
Race 6:
13   Cradle Me  (SA 12/6 1039)
Race 7:
3   Zabeelionaire (NZ) (SA 14/6 1012)
6   Bang On  (SA 14/6 0442)
9   Warrior Within  (SA 14/6 1004VC)
Race 8:
11   Benny’s Buttons  (SC 14/6 1117)
14   New Day Rising  (SC 14/6 0857)
17   Mr Armstrong  (SA 14/6 0854)
Race 9:
3   General Exhibit  (SC 13/6 0832)
15   Lock’s Legend  (SC 14/6 0817)
Goodluck.
Tuesday 11th June
I have added a new tab to this website on doing the form manually with free form guides. You will find it under Staking Plans. I will get slightly more in depth with examples over a period of time.
I have spoken to quite a few fellow punting friends and associate’s over the long weekend. Quite a few of them have indicated that they use Stradbroke Day  or Tattersall Tiara ( the last Group 1 race of the season ) as  being the point in the season to go out for a well earned spell from betting , go watch some football and come back fresh in  August  – the start of the new racing season. I myself use to do this very year but now punting for a living I bet some 50 weeks of the year. Surprisingly some of my best results have been during the winter months. With the new season upon us we should all take a little time to get our 2014 racing plan in order. This may help you.
Try to keep your form study & betting simple. Draw up a Matrix and answer these few questions.
  • What are  your top 6 criteria’s that you believe will determine the outcome of a horse winning todays race? Time , Barrier , Acceleration , Weights ????????????
  • • How you are going to determine your selections?
  •   What reliable source will I get the form from.
  • • How much of your bankroll you will wager on each selection
  • • Where you are going to place your bets
  • What is the minimum price I will accept on any given bet?
Then don’t waiver from this plan. Keep it simple, believe in it , become a specialist , don’t be influenced by all the hype out there and seek the best prices available. I hope this helps you.
The 2013 Tattersalls Tiara  will be run on Saturday, 22 June 2013
The 2013 Tattersalls Tiara is a Group One set-weight race for fillies and mares held over a distance of 1400 metres at Eagle Farm Racecourse with total prizemoney of $500,000.
The Tattersalls Tiara is the last Group 1 race of the season and always attracts a big field with capacity fields of 20 regular.  It is a very keenly sought race for breeders / owners as it is the last chance for a filly / mare to claim the elite level before being retired to stud.
The 2011 winner Yosei , as a four-year-old, completed a rare treble for her jockey Michelle Payne and trainer Stuart Webb as it was her third Group 1 success after winning the AJC Sires Produce Stakes as a two-year-old and the Group 1 Thousand Guineas the next season. A marvellous feat. The Winform Time Ratings that  I use was on fire that year and we had Yosei rated  equal on top with Beaded With a wonderful rails run we got the bickies at odds of 15/1.and the quinella was a nice bonus. Here is hoping this year if you are still betting. Below I will delve deeper into that ordinary looking form.
 3:47 Eagle Farm R7 1400m  F&M Gp1 Tattersall's Tiara 
 
No E     Form Horse          Wodds BP WPC A#  #S Wnet 
12   56190X60 Yosei          4.8  1  21.4  2  14 69.5   
 1   X1-32X12 Beaded         4.8  3  47.6  1  21 69.5 
 2   124-9X11 Varenna Miss   7.9 12  55.5  5   9 66.1
 3   152X6223 Zero Rock     18.1 10  41.7  4  24 60.6
 7   33X14443 Zingaling     18.4  8  18.8  7  16 60.5
You will notice that Yosei form appeared pretty rough having run 060 at her last 3 starts. However a closer look at the form showed that her previous two wins had been in Group One races and one those at 1400m. She always had taken 3-4 runs back from a spell to hit top form and her two of her last 3 starts she had suffered server interference. She had run good times and clearly over the odds in todays event.
Sunday 9th June

Yesterday OUCH…………………. I was correct in my assessment of Buffering being a worry as a High Confidence bet due to the fact that I believed he would be a sitting duck for a backmarker and the weight was a big impost. I was right in my assessment with  the closeness of the ratings and big mix of prices being a worry. I  decided to heavily weight my betting around exotics and back the size of my standard bets off. I was running for big money but with half the outlay. This is the point I have tried to highlight in my flexible staking plan. I dropped $820  & most of my boxed quinellas l were running for between $5000-$12000  but  sadly not one return.
But I was very wrong about one thing. I had several people ask my opinion of what would run well in the Stradbroke this weekend. The discussion of Linton came up with both my wife & my Nephew who is a very proficient punter in Adelaide form. But I made a statement to my Nephew during the week that if Linton won the Stradbroke I would have  a 6 month break from racing.
Well history now shows the bloody thing did it. My Nephew was hot on the phone to me. But wait there more , My wife also  had $50 straight out @$34 fixed on Linton. So maybe we should hand the reigns over to her for 2013.?My Wife cracked a lovely bottle of  Janz last night while I sulked and ate a  piece of humble pie
It does prove a couple of things. I just recently read a E-Book by Champion Picks and there is a very funny comment in there and I quote ” In racing opinions are like Arse###les – everyone has one” Avoid them at all costs.
The other thing that was proved that a certain TV Presenter should stop bagging Adelaide form. In the last 7 days the Adelaide form has held up well in the Brisbane Carnival. In last weeks Grp 2 QTC Cup Galah and Conservatorium finished in a photo for 1st at odds of 7/1 & 20/1. Both these horses had cracker runs the start before in Adelaide’s premium Grp 1 Goodwood Hcp. Luckily I was on Galah on this occasion.
Linton has only won 3 times in his last 16 starts and you can guess where Morphettville -Adelaide in two Group3 races and a Listed Event. On times he didn’t get close as his best time recorded was back in March 2011 in the Grp1 Australian Cup over 2000m behind Shocking. Hindsight is a wonderful thing.!
Thursday 6th June
Thank you to those readers who left some positive comments on my site. I was a bit surprised to hear from anyone at this stage because we have not promoted this site as yet due to complications in building it – we have nearly ironed out the bugs. I would dearly love to reproduce my 2011 Stradbroke Day Results this weekend. That day I rated 5 horses clearly on top in the Group Races. There was four winners and one  second.
Abstract               $5.50 Lancaster Stks
Benfica                 $4.50 T J Smith
Sincero                 $10.30  Stradbroke Hcp
Torio Quest        $11.90 Qld Guineas
3:40 EagleFarm Race 7 1400m Gp1 Stradbroke Hcp 

No      Form Horse          Wodds WPC A# Wnet  FP 
18   1111X110 Sincero        3.1  66.7  8 83.4  1 
13   -124X137 Buffering      7.0  50.0  5 78.0  4       
 5   2X1-32X1 Beaded         9.1  50.0  3 76.2  2       
 4   25-222-2 LoveConquers  14.1  35.3  1 73.3 15

   Click to View 2011 Stradbroke Hcp 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DIU73jy_8IU
I’m not quite as confident this year as the ratings have thrown up some wildcards and the top few selections in each race are extremely close , in most cases less than a length between the top 4 horses. With the closeness of the selections and big mix of prices I have decided to heavily weight my betting around exotics this weekend, not something I do too often.
 I have already locked into some great fixed price quinellas with Sporting Bet and run the 5 Group Races through a parlay. My top rated selections are at $21.00 $12.00 $41.00 $10.00 $21.00. So come Saturday night I expect I will have either had a total wipe out or be ordering the  Bollinger by the crate load. The one horse I did take at early fixed odds for a win bet was Buffering at $12.00 Fixed.
I must say that I am hesitate on the result as Top Weights have an appalling record in the Stradbroke Hcp. What might surprise punters is that last start winners also have a poor record as do fillies & mares. The track appears to be heading for a Dead4 to Good 3 range if the rain stays away.
Amazing statistic for Stradbroke Handicap from Racenet.com
1993 Never Undercharge won the Group II Angus Brut Classic at Morphettville and at its next start won the Stradbroke. Since 1993  no last start winner has won the Stradbroke –  in fact, only six horses in those 18 years placed before winning the Stradbroke.
But there is a key lead-up race to the Stradbroke – the wfa Doomben 10,000, which has produced seven of the last 10 winners in their final Stradbroke lead-up. Three of those winners, Black Piranha, Private Steer and Show A Heart all ran second at Doomben but relished the drop from weight-for-age to a handicap in the Stradbroke.
In the past 10 years, 2 of 10 Stradbroke Handicap Favourites have won – average price = $3.75
In the past 10 years, 5 of 10 Stradbroke Handicap Favourites have failed to place – average price = $5.30
Since 1983, 12 Stradbroke Handicap winners have won at double figures – avg price = $16.75
In the last 10 years, five of the winners have started from double figure barriers of which two jumped from gate 18 on being La Montagna in 2006 which I backed at juicy double figure odds.
Certainly a lot to consider isn’t there! That’s why I let the ratings to the hard yards and I just make minute manual adjustments and seek the best prices to get hopefully a handsome reward. Never forget that this is a punting business and the aim is to make some serious money.
Good Luck to all Saturday……..Greg
    Sunday 2nd June
Well anyone who has read all the material on this website would be aware of the edge I try to gain and the manual input I use to compliment the automated time rated horses. Three races in particular highlighted it to a tee on Saturday at Eagle Farm. In the two main races I backed Sizziling on Thursday morning at the brilliant odds of $7.50 fixed.Sizziling started $3.80 on race day and won hands down. Thus almost double the odds I secured. At $200 win bet that s an extra $740 in my pocket.
In the Oaks I backed Soapys Star on Thursday morning at the brilliant odds of $18.00 with Sportingbet.Soapys Star started $9.00 on race day. Thats double the odds again. unfortunately she loomed up to win and faded badly.
In the QTC Cup I took an automated penalty back off Galah as he had excellent form second up. He had won at the distance and his last run in the Grp1 Goodwood Hcp justified re rating this horse. Galah ended up just 0.1 point behind my top rated selection Mahisara, who was unlucky in the run. Galah took out a sterling photo finish.
 4:20 Eagle Farm Race 8 01Jun13 1300m   Gp2 $175000 
 
No E     Form Horse              BP Wodds  AS Wnet 
 9   811X5942 Mahisara            6   6.0  4H 69.3
16 E 462-30X8 Galah              10   6.1  4H 69.2
10   -3251X74 Morning Captain    12   8.3  4G 67.2
12   0X136X44 Griffon             2  10.0  7G 65.9
 5   X1435X57 Startsmeup          1  12.5  5G 64.4

Tuesday 28th May

My apologies to anyone who initially read this site on the 5th May and has been logging in since seeing no new material. We are still in the slow process of building this site and had some “teething problems ” trying to get the home page and other functions working.
This  week I will be concentrating my betting on the Group and Listed Races at EagleFarm on Saturday. At this early stage it appears we will have slow tracks across all states.The Toowoomba Cup is being run on a Sunday and that will catch a lot of punters off guard. The Toowoomba Cup usually attracts a large field and represents a great betting opportunity.  This will be the last Cup run on the Cushon track.
The weekend fields will be released by Wednesday afternoon. I start analysing the form on my GTX Program Wednesday afternoon and then start to closely look at the fixed odds be offered with some bookmakers.    http://www.brc.com.au/         http://toowoombaturfclub.com/

course_map

RECORDS AS AT AUGUST 10th 2012
 
 TOOWOOMBA TURF CLUB INC.
 COURSE RECORDS DISTANCE  
HORSE
TIME
DATE
850 m
Tycoon Tattoo
0/48.86
08/10/11
1000 M
Tycoon Tattoo
0/59.33
24/07/10
1050M
Reilly Blue
1/02.07
09/04/11
1100M
Rodrigeuz
1/05.44
11/06/11
1200M
Hyde Park
1/11.83
30/07/11
1300M
Tycoon’s Pride
1/17.45
29/05/10
1500M
Smuggler’s Inn
1/30.54
28/11/09
1625M
Emoticon
1/38.28
30/07/11
1850M
Released
1/54.34
17/07/10
2000M
Rock Hit
2/03.87
19/05/12
2100M
Jussemi
2/10.66
11/07/09
.

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