Lesson of the Week

 This weeks lesson : What is Track Bias.


I found this report on the The Australian Racing Report Web Page and it pretty much sums up my thoughts exactly.The Australian Racing Report website has a fantastic review of all racecourse in Australia so please check it out.
So what is Track Bias? Track bias exists at every grass racecourse in Australia, country and metropolitan. It is the result of the layout of the track, the track rating (Good, Dead, Slow or Heavy), the distance of the starting gates to the first turn and the position of the movable inside rail.
The only tracks that don’t exhibit any real bias are the synthetic tracks. The Pro-Ride track at Geelong is always rated Good and the rail is always True. It’s also pretty boring and results can be sometimes be easy to predict, so offers limited interest to punters who are looking for an edge over their peers and the bookies.
Grass tracks are far  more challenging to assess, but finding a winner at big odds because you know what the track bias is likely to be (and most others don’t) can be very rewarding. As well as noting the rail position and track conditions, the length of the final straight at the course is a major factor in determining whether swoopers or on pace or leading will be an advantage. At courses such as Flemington, where there is a long home straight after a wide sweeping turn, it is possible to make ground from behind the leaders even on days when the rail is out.
However, at the tighter turning courses, such as Caulfield, Moonee Valley and Rosehill, it is difficult to make ground when the rail is out and this often results in a leaders track. While Randwick has a long home straight, it is susceptible to rain and is often leader biased when rated Slow or Heavy. Let’s take the example of a race at Caulfield over 1400m where the start is positioned just before a turn and the rail is out 6 metres. Those horses who end up racing back in the field and three wide will find it difficult to pass other horses because they will have to travel over more ground being further off the rail than those horses on it.
If the track is wet, the leader bias goes up another notch. While they will probably be avoiding the ground near the inside fence later in the day it will still be difficult to make ground. You can eliminate horses from your selections who are not likely to start quickly and get to the inside fence before the home turn.
There are some basic rules which can be applied to all Australian racecourses, but it’s always a good idea to consider things like the distance of the race, the position of the starting gates and the likely speed in the race when assessing the form.
Rail is True – the pattern of racing should be fair with equal opportunities offered to those racing on the pace and those swooping from behind. The track rating and likely speed in the race (who is likely to lead and who will sit behind them) is probably the most important factor when assessing the form.
Rail is out 4 metres or more – this is more likely to result in a leaders track. The further out the rail is, the more pronounced this becomes. The only track in Australia where this does not appear to be the rule is Sandown Lakeside, which is often a leaders track when the rail is True and a swoopers track when the rail is out.
Track rating is Good or Dead – these are preferred track conditions for Australian racing, some horses will only perform on ground that is no worse than Dead. Most horses will have their chance and all parts of the course should race fairly. If the course is firmer than Good it may be rated Fast, but with the primary concern being the safety of the horses and riders this is rarely seen these days.
Track rating is Slow or Heavy – some horses only excel on wet ground and are often raced in the winter. The wetter the ground, the more likely it is to favour the on pace runners. Back markers will find it hard work to make up ground in soft going, not to mention getting a face full of mud from the horses in front. Drawing an inside gate and finding the lead early is usually an advantage. After prolonged periods of wet weather, horses will be taken wide in the home straight looking for the better ground.
** My GTX system developer is a fantastic tool for analysing hundreds of racetracks over the whole of Australia and not only does the track bias become obvious but also the not so obvious patterns of trainers and jockeys alike. I have profiled hundreds of courses and have a unique data base that only required some extra digging.**


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