Step 1- Getting the Form.
On Wednesdays at around 2pm I go into GTX Software and download all the fields for Saturdays Races. That’s 3 ½ Days before the races! Why so early. We want to get an EDGE.
I use computerised ratings that work out thousands of horses runs over their last 16 starts. The program picks the best qualifying run on adjusted times against a par time that for the track that the horse raced on that day. I know how to work these times out manually but it use to take me from 4pm Friday until about 1am Saturday morning.
With the onset of wall to wall racing 7 days a week in Australia it would be virtually impossible to find the time to assess every runner in every race for Saturdays races and not make an error. So whilst rating providers can be very expensive it is a godsend to have it all worked out in seconds to 100% accuracy – what use to take me 9 hrs is now less than 2 minutes.
My time these days is spent making minute manual adjustments to each race and 80% of my free time is spent on these 3 key points:
· What are the best betting races?
· How I will attack them?
· Check all Corporate Bookmakers for the best prices to gain an EDGE.
I have my form 3 days in advance so there is no excuse not to get the very best prices available.
So back to my downloaded form. I look at every Listed and Group Race for Saturdays racing. This is what I specialise in. My recommendation to every single punter is to become a specialist in one area of the racing game be it sprint races, certain tracks or states or trainers or pace. The best advice I can give you in racing is
· Become a specialist;
· It is easier to totally analyse the form over a few races than spreading your time of 30 races;
· Get the best price, price, price available.
Starting with the first Black Type race I view my automated ratings and working from the top rated horse down, look at what run the program picked the Qualifying run from. If I believe the run was too far back in time or a peak performance that will not be repeated again I simple pick another run closest to today’s conditions.
I also add back any penalties that the program may have allocated automatically eg: a 20 point penalty is automatically applied to any horses 2nd up from a spell over 1300m upwards. However some horses are specialists 2nd up from a spell. I remember a big collect in 2010 on a horse called Kenny’s World @ $39.00 fixed odds, applying this exact method. I have had numerous successes since.
I personally penalise all horse’s 7yo and over. Their record justifies this. I am able to black book horses in my program or make notes of poor runs. I make minute adjustments as I see fit when these notes appear on-screen. I have created certain profiles from my system developer that adds an extra edge to the form taking in factors of age, strike rates distance changes etc. These are taken into account on my top few rated horses. It is a beautiful mix of Computer technology and Manual intervention.
The next step is to look at the current track conditions at acceptance time and then the 3 day forecast and try to gauge what the track will be like come Saturday. Now most professionals would argue that predicting track conditions 3 days out is stupid and they may be right but the early odds I gain on my winners far outweighs waiting until Saturday and getting a 1/3rd of the odds. Especially if the track is going to be very wet. The media latches onto the wet runners and horses I have bet early at $31 can start as low as $4.00.
Once I have made all the manual adjustments and change the program to the track rating eg (dead ) I print out the top 5 rated horses for all the races that I am interested in on Saturday, being the Listed and Group Races. Sometimes there is up to about 20 of these races to review when carnivals are in full swing but that does not mean I will be betting all 20 races.
The first thing I do with the print out is to take a few minutes and check for any errors I might have made eg: leaving an 8yo rated on top. These few minutes will save you thousands of dollars over the years, trust me. On this point when you are doing the form you need to isolate yourself from outside distractions-totally.
Most Wednesdays the Corporate Bookmakers start to put up early odds for the Saturday Fields especially a Group 1 race. I start to surf the bookmakers and record the top price available on my 2 best rated selections in each race and who with. That’s a good afternoon’s work.
We recommence on Thursday morning for the serious part.