Step 2 – What Races to bet and where’s the edge.
Thursday morning is when 85 % of my betting for the weekend is done. We have in front of us print our top 5 selections in all the Black Type races, plus any Open in depth races that may present a big pay out. On Thursdays the first thing I recommend to do is to open up a website called Way2bet.com.au
This is a brilliant website it has a page that shows all the current fixed prices for about 7 different corporate bookmakers. Once more, it is free to use. There is also a section where you have a free form guide which is the exact wording you will find in your local paper only 2 days before. Other similar sites are the Oddsbroker and Dynamic odds. I reiterate that I have no financial gains from any source.
Now I record the best fixed odds on each top 2 or 3 rated horses in each race I have printed out and who that price may be with eg: Bet 365 $41.00 I also look at what each corporate bookmaker might be offering in bonus bets as it is so competitive now and it all adds to your bottom line at the end of the day.
4:05 SA Derby Race 7 04May 2500m 3YO Gp1$500000
No E Form Horse BP Wodds AS Wnet Fixed Odds
6 536X6472 Escado 1 2.0 3G 77.5 $41 B365
7 18X08-13 Pins Of Pele 13 3.8 3G 73.2 $33 IAS
1 14X84176 Hvasstan 11 20.9 3C 61.8 $6 IAS
4 20X91454 Gerontius 2 72.5 3G 53.6 $12 SPBET
13 2X1-5-6 Hesnotthemessiah 6 112.1 3G 50.6 $31 LUXBET
As mentioned in my section on staking plans not every race is the same. All present different betting opportunities. Once I record all my fixed odds I then look at Every Race in front of me to work out what races are good betting opportunities and how best to attack them eg: all for the win on one horse , each way , or a split between Win & Exotic bets.
In the race above this was the main race in Australia that day with a big field and big pool of money. I decided that I would have ½ my money for the Win on Escado at $41 fixed as some bookmakers already had it as low as $26. With a good mixture of prices with my top 4 selections there was a great chance for a big exotic collect. Seeing as my second rated selection Pins Of Pele was so close to Escado in the ratings I stood both Escado and Pins Of Pele out from the others in an exacta 2 x 5 combination. Sadly no return on the exacta but Escado won easily.
Escado started at $12 SP on course and the best tote was $13.80. I got $41.00 fixed. That’s $27.20 more or for $100 an extra $2720.00 for doing nothing more than getting the bet on early with the best bookmaker price available. If you got that sort of gap every time you won and you had say 100 winners in a year that’s an extra $272000 for $100 bets or $54400 for just $20.00 bets! NOW THINK ABOUT THAT LONG TERM.
The same winners, just you have gained a betting edge, it’s that simple. Of course the gap won’t be that big every time but even a $2.00 difference each winner adds up. I bet approx. $200 win bets. 100 winners x $2.00 edge x $200 bet = $40,000 extra in my pocket at the year’s end. I could NOT survive on the TAB today. Once I have worked out my best races and the method of attack I simply place all of my win bets now – Thursday morning and that’s that part of the equation out of the way unless there is any early scratching’s prior to the weekend.
With the races that I have elected to have exotic bets on I have found it best to wait until after scratching’s Saturday morning as it is too messy if you place them early and the selections are scratched. The media may really hype up a couple of your selections that you thought would be great value in the Exotic bet. That being the case I will place the remainder of my stake back on the original Win bet providing that hasn’t been hammered as well. You will find betting just for the win a lot less stressful long-term that spreading yourself too thin but that is your choice entirely.
The only exception to the rule of waiting until Saturday morning is one corporate bookie only offers Fixed Price Quinella betting. That is Sportingbet however, you have to be careful as sometimes their odds are under the other bookmakers which takes the shine off the Fixed Price Quinella bet. Now sit back and relax until Saturday. Enjoy listening to the so-called experts on all the Radio and TV Shows over the next 48 hrs as they ruin the odds for all or some of your top rated selections that you have already snapped up the great odds on.
I use to hate fixed odds betting years ago as I always felt that I could not ever pick the right time to get on. If I took $20 the price would ease to $40. If I waited it would shorten significantly and I would curse myself. I assure you that those days have gone as the closer to race day the shorter the odds these days.
Certain bookmakers have products that remove any worries as above.Bet365 is one such Corporate Bookmaker. If you select $20 fixed you are guaranteed that as a minimum. If the horse starts longer odds you get the longer odds. If it pays better on anyone of the TABS you get that price. If the horse starts significantly shorter than the $20 you lock in at you still get $20.00. You simple can’t lose. What a great product. As punters we have never had it so good. If it’s all too hard for you to fill out a form on-line to register with a couple of Corporate Bookmakers then you are not serious about winning money. What’s more most of them give you joining bonuses up to $500 free.
In my products section I will give you my personal thoughts on the few Corporate Bookmakers I use, how best to use their product and the dealings I have had with them.